Executive Summary
This report builds on the analysis we published on June 4, 2025. At that time, we explained why Dubai’s on-ground fundamentals would diverge from broad forecasts of a mid-2025 correction.
What was forecast: In late May 2025, Fitch projected a moderate correction up to ~15% in H2-2025 into 2026, driven by a supply surge against ~5% population growth
What happened (May–Sep): Instead of a summer drop, the market held firm. Prices rose in June and July; August recorded ~17,879 transactions and AED 42.4bn sales with off-plan ≈72.5%. Dubai’s population crossed 4,000,000 by late August, boosting absorption capacity exactly when a decline was expected.
Market Results (May–Sep 2025)
| Month 2025 | Price Trend (MoM) | Avg. Price (AED/sq ft) | Transactions | Sales Value (AED bn) | Off-plan Share |
| May | +2.0% | 1,582 | 18,700+ | 51.1 | ~70% |
| June | +1.71% | 1,609 | 16,584 | — | — |
| July | +0.99% | 1,625 | 20,116 | — | — |
| August | Strong (no drop) | — | 17,879 | 42.4 | 72.5% |
| September* | Strong (early reports) | — | — | — | — |
*September data preliminary
Analysis
Fitch’s scenario highlighted supply risk, but timing (launches vs handovers), off-plan pre-absorption, and near-term population inflows were underestimated. Dubai’s population surpassing 4.0m in Aug 2025 is a clear tailwind. New supply remains apartment-heavy, while villas/prime are still tight. Real outcomes reflect long-horizon planning under H.H. Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum and H.H. Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, reinforcing confidence.
Conclusion
The summer confirmed what we highlighted on June 4, 2025: Dubai’s resilience is grounded in demand growth, segment differences, and visionary leadership. Prices did not fall as forecasted; activity stayed strong.
— Maisam Abbas, Founder & CEO, Expert Bridge Real Estate
Disclaimer
This article reflects market observations and opinions based on publicly available data and on-ground analysis by Expert Bridge Real Estate LLC. It is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Investors are encouraged to conduct their own due diligence.
Sources
Fitch Ratings – “Dubai Property Prices to Drop; Issuers Have Rating Buffers” (May 28, 2025). Available at: https://www.fitchratings.com
Reuters – “Dubai property prices expected to fall by up to 15%…” (May 29, 2025). Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dubai-property-prices-expected-to-fall-by-15-on-supply-glut-this-year-fitch-says-2025-05-29/
The National – “Dubai property prices expected to fall by 15%…” (May 29, 2025). Available at: https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/2025/05/29/dubai-property-prices-expected-to-fall-by-15-on-supply-glut-this-year-fitch-says/
Property Monitor – May 2025 Report: DPI +2.0% MoM to AED 1,582/sq ft; ~18,700 transactions; AED 51.1bn sales. Available at: https://www.propertymonitor.com
Property Monitor – June 2025 Report: DPI +1.71% MoM to AED 1,609/sq ft; 16,584 transactions. Available at: https://www.propertymonitor.com
Property Monitor – July 2025 Report: DPI +0.99% MoM to AED 1,625/sq ft; 20,116 transactions. Available at: https://www.propertymonitor.com
Engel & Völkers – August 2025 Report: 17,879 transactions; AED 42.4bn sales; 72.5% off-plan. Available at: https://www.engelvoelkers.com
Property Monitor – September 2025 Commentary: Preliminary reports. Available at: https://www.propertymonitor.com
Dubai Statistics Centre – Population Clock (Aug 28, 2025: surpassing 4,000,000). Available at: https://www.dsc.gov.ae
ValuStrat – Dubai Real Estate VPI (July 2025): Segment-specific performance. Available at: https://valustrat.com